Football is back.

Sort of.

It’s preseason football, which is football in the same way the lettuce growing on my kitchen counter is farming.

Technically accurate.

Preseason football is the only sporting event where I can spend three hours emotionally invested in a man whose LinkedIn profile may be updated before I finish breakfast tomorrow.

By the fourth quarter, the field is filled with players wearing numbers like 63, 47 and 19, and I’m sitting there screaming:

COME ON, 47!

I don’t know 47’s name.

The announcer barely knows 47’s name.

47’s mother may be watching the game thinking:

Wait. Is that him?

And somehow we’re betting on this.

Regular-season handicapping involves quarterbacks, injuries, offensive lines, EPA, weather and whether somebody’s left tackle can still rotate his shoulder.

Preseason handicapping involves sentences like:

“Cleveland’s starters aren’t playing, their backup quarterback isn’t playing, and this other guy should get most of the second half with people who may be selling insurance by Labor Day.”

Then Bertie looks at all of that and says:

Patriots -2.5.

Seems reasonable.

The strangest part is that I’ll care.  Okay…  care a little.

Somewhere around the fourth quarter, a Patriots receiver I’ve never heard of will drop a third-and-seven pass, and I will react as though this man has personally damaged our relationship.

Twenty-four hours later, he could be waived.

I’ll see the transaction and think:

Yeah. That feels right.

Welcome back, football.

We’ve missed you.

Some of you very briefly.

Yesterday’s Sports Mess

Yesterday we went 1-2, which means our newly liberated, safety-rail-free betting philosophy lasted exactly one day before somebody asked where we keep the Band-Aids.

But I don’t hate yesterday nearly as much as the record suggests.

⚾ KANSAS CITY F5 ML +100 ❌

Kansas City came into the game having won nine straight.

Randy Dobnak gave us the starting-pitching setup we wanted.

And for three innings, everything looked perfectly reasonable.

Then Nathan Lukes hit a three-run homer in the fourth. And we had a heart att-nak-nak-nak-nak-nak. (Billy Joel in the hizzay!)

Kansas City scored exactly zero runs.

That’s problematic when the object of the wager is to have more runs than the other team after five innings.

Dobnak wasn’t awful. One swing did most of the damage.

Our bigger miss was assuming Kansas City’s hot offense would continue being hot because it had recently been hot.

Baseball occasionally enjoys reminding you that momentum is only momentum until somebody goes 0-for-4.

Reasonable process. Wrong result.

⚾ LOS ANGELES DODGERS F5 ❌

This one annoys me for a completely different reason.

The Dodgers gave Roki Sasaki a 3-1 lead.

Good.

That’s approximately what we ordered.

Then Roki developed a blister and left after 3⅓ innings.

Bad.  Bloody rosin bag bad.

Our entire handicap was built around Roki’s recent improvement and asking him to get us through the first five.

Instead, apparently we should have spent more time handicapping the structural integrity of his fingers.

Atlanta scored three in the fourth and led 4-3 after five.

Bet dead.

Roki headed to the injured list.

I don’t know what to do with this one other than shrug.

The handicap was working.

Then our pitcher lost some skin.

Baseball.

⚾ PHILADELPHIA F5 -0.5 ✅

And then there was Philadelphia.

Beautiful, wonderful Philadelphia.

The Phillies led 6-0 after two innings.

Bryce Harper homered.

Kyle Schwarber homered.

Jesús Luzardo eventually threw seven scoreless innings while allowing one hit and striking out nine.

This was exactly what yesterday’s idea was supposed to look like.

Starter advantage.

Offensive advantage.

Remove the bullpen.

Get ahead early.

Philadelphia led 6-0 after five.

Thank you.

No notes.

THE GIANT SCOREBOARD

Yesterday’s 1-2 moves us to:

ALL SPORTS: 1,030-1,061-7

Our recent journey now looks like:

1-8.

Then 4-0.

Then 0-3.

Then 1-2.

If this were an EKG, somebody would already be wheeling us toward another room.

Meanwhile:

TENNIS: 0-1

Still perfectly preserved.

Nobody touch it.

TODAY’S GRINDER

Today’s baseball board isn’t enormous, which means we’re not going to manufacture baseball bets simply because we’ve become accustomed to having three things to regret tomorrow morning.

But we found two.

And football has returned to provide the third.

⚾ DODGERS / BRAVES UNDER 7

Yesterday we bet on Roki.

Today we’re betting on considerably more established appendages.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto versus Chris Sale.

Yamamoto has been excellent.

Sale has been excellent.

And seven gives us an important little piece of protection.

A 4-3 game pushes.

I like pushes.

Nobody celebrates a push, but nobody wakes up angry at one either.

It’s the beige Toyota Camry of gambling results. It got you home.

This isn’t about which team wins. It’s simply two excellent pitchers in a matchup where runs should require paperwork.

Dodgers/Braves Under 7.

⚾ NEW YORK YANKEES F5 ML

We’re going back to the first-five laboratory.

Gerrit Cole against Hayden Wesneski.

Cole gives New York the starting-pitching advantage, and that’s the portion of the game we’re interested in owning.

The Yankees are missing some important bats, which keeps me from getting too excited about laying additional runs.

So don’t.

Give me Cole.

Give me five innings.

Don’t give me a blister that requires an extreme close-up from the outfield cameraman.

Then everyone can do whatever they’d like afterward.

🏈 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -2.5

And there it is.

Our first football pick.  I think.  Maybe we did one last week. The week is hazy.

Preseason football.

Cleveland isn’t playing its starters.

They’re not playing their backup quarterback. They aren’t playing the settlement king.

Dillon Gabriel is expected to get the first half with the second team, with Taylen Green handling the second half with the third team.  Side note – Charlton Heston was really good in that Taylen Green movie

This is apparently information we’re now using to make financial decisions.

Excellent.

New England isn’t exactly rolling Tom Brady, Randy Moss and John Hannah onto the field either.

That’s not the point.

Preseason handicapping is about depth, playing time and figuring out which coaching staff is planning to spend slightly more of the evening pretending the final score matters.

We think that’s New England.

Patriots -2.5.

And somewhere in the fourth quarter I’ll be screaming at Number 47.

Whoever he is.

TODAY’S PICKS

⚾ LA Dodgers / Atlanta UNDER 7

⚾ NY Yankees F5 ML

🏈 New England Patriots -2.5

Baseball.

Football.

And no WNBA bet forced into the card simply because the league exists.

We’re keeping yesterday’s rule:

Find the edge first. Pick the market second. Know your value.

Although after watching preseason football tonight, we may need to add:

Learn Number 47’s name before yelling at him.

We’ll deal with that tomorrow.

This isn’t called Pick What I Pick.

It’s called Don’t Pick What I Pick.

Please wager accordingly.