The security breach assumes someone is reading.
The Riff
I don’t play fantasy football anymore.
I used to, but eventually I realized fantasy football is just unpaid middle management with more hamstring injuries. You spend the week reviewing performance reports, making staffing decisions and pretending you have inside information because a man on television said someone “looked explosive in warmups.”
Then Sunday arrives and your carefully assembled workforce disappoints you individually.
The worst part is what fantasy football does to your actual fandom. You can be watching your favorite team score a touchdown and somehow feel angry because the wrong employee scored it.
“Great play. Unfortunately, I needed the other wide receiver to receive the credit.”
That is no way to watch football.
I prefer the traditional experience, where I root for one team and allow that team to disappoint me collectively.
But I do participate in a football pick’em league.
This is completely different because I have declared it different.
In the pick’em league, we choose every game and rank them according to confidence. The game I feel most confident about gets the most points. The game I know absolutely nothing about receives one point and a small prayer.
Fourteen points means: I HAVE STUDIED THE MATCHUP.
One point means: THIS GAME WAS ALSO ON THE FORM.
This creates a problem for Don’t Pick What I Pick.
Every week, I publish my football picks on the internet. Those picks may overlap with the picks I submit in the confidence pool, which means I am potentially giving my opponents valuable strategic information. You can submit picks until an hour before the first games begin.
They could read the column, identify the teams I like and construct their own cards specifically to defeat me.
Or—more likely—they could use opposite logic to have a winning day.
Because Don’t Pick What I Pick is not merely the name.
It is a lifestyle.
Knowing what I picked would be a significant competitive disadvantage.
First, however, one of them would need to know the blog exists.
Then they would need to find it.
Then they would need to read all the way through the riff, past whatever grievance I have developed with a household appliance, a parking space or a man living in an Airbnb shed.
Only then would they reach the picks.
This is less of a security breach and more of a treasure hunt with very little treasure.
Still, I have started imagining the other members of the league gathering intelligence.
“Benzo likes New England this week.”
“How do you know?”
“He published 1,300 words about hotel waffles, followed by three paragraphs on the Patriots.”
“My God. He’s hiding the information in plain sight.”
The obvious solution would be to stop publishing my picks.
Unfortunately, the column is called Don’t Pick What I Pick, and removing the picks would leave us with Don’t.
Strong message. Limited sports content. Some people would be happy.
I could publish different picks, but that would require maintaining two separate collections of bad decisions. I’m barely equipped to operate one.
I could delay publishing until after the games begin, although “Here’s what I would have picked several hours ago” feels less like handicapping and more like testimony. Plus revisionist history is a strong suit, and I don’t want to wear it.
So I’m going to continue posting the picks and trust the elaborate security system already in place:
The assumption that nobody in my pick’em league reads my blog.
This may be the first competitive strategy built entirely around limited readership.
If one of them does find it, I hope they understand the title.
This isn’t called Pick What I Pick.
It’s called Don’t Pick What I Pick.
The warning is right there.
Anything that happens after that is industrial espionage.
Yesterday’s Autopsy
Yesterday went 2-2, continuing our aggressive campaign to move absolutely nowhere.
The Tigers moneyline lost 3-2. Detroit carried a 2-1 lead into the late innings before Minnesota tied it and eventually completed the comeback. The starting-pitching advantage existed. The winning portion of the wager did not.
The Yankees -1.5 won 5-3. New York understood that winning the game was only part of the assignment and supplied the additional run required by the paperwork.
The Blue Jays -1.5 also won 4-2. After failing to cover the previous day by losing outright, Toronto made the radical decision to score more runs than its opponent and enough additional runs to satisfy us.
Then came the Dodgers -1.5.
Los Angeles won 3-2, which is wonderful for the standings and functionally useless for anyone holding a run-line ticket. For the second consecutive day, the Dodgers discovered their mojo but apparently left the extra run wherever they found it. Skoobydoo papa!
Two winners. Two losers.
The round robin produced one surviving pair: the Yankees and Blue Jays. The Dodgers technically won, spiritually disappointed us and will now be granted another opportunity to do both.
The Giant Scoreboard
ALL SPORTS: 1,054-1,080-7
TENNIS: 1-1
Who the hell bets on tennis?
Today’s Picks
Today’s classified material begins with the Patriots +3.5 in Seattle.
This is where fandom normally enters the room, overturns the furniture and begins demanding that I take New England on the moneyline.
We will be controlling that impulse.
The Patriots are without TreVeyon Henderson and Ben Brown, which is not ideal when visiting the defending champions. But Seattle is thin at safety, New England has added A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs, and the market has moved toward the Patriots since opening.
Most importantly, we get three and a half points.
The half point serves as a small emotional containment unit or as protection against the 12th man.
We’re taking the Cardinals moneyline behind Andre Pallante against Matt Wilkinson. Pallante enters at 12-6 with a 3.51 ERA. Wilkinson is 0-3 with a 6.14 ERA. St. Louis has already lost the first two games of the series, but at approximately -128, the price is reasonable enough to risk discovering whether avoiding a sweep remains one of baseball’s traditional values.
The Yankees -1.5 return because yesterday’s success apparently didn’t teach me restraint. Will Warren faces Tomoyuki Sugano, who carries a 5.19 ERA, and the Yankees’ moneyline is hovering near -250.
That price is less a wager than a charitable contribution with limited tax benefits.
We move to the run line.
Finally, we’re taking the Dodgers -1.5 behind Yoshinobu Yamamoto. He owns a 2.67 ERA and 0.90 WHIP, while Cincinnati counters with Rhett Lowder and his 5.43 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. The Dodgers have won six straight at home, and their moneyline has crossed into the portion of the menu where prices are no longer printed.
Yes, the Dodgers failed to cover for us yesterday while winning by one.
We have reviewed the incident and decided to compromise the operation again.
Patriots +3.5
Cardinals ML
Yankees -1.5
Dodgers -1.5
Four picks. No ceremonial fifth.
The Patriots selection is not the result of bias.
That is the official statement.
The supporting documents have been classified.
Bad Picks. Better Stories.
This isn’t called Pick What I Pick.
It’s called Don’t Pick What I Pick.
Please wager accordingly.
