I have discovered that I have a superpower. One that doesn’t involve coffee consumption.
Good Morning.
Unfortunately, it is completely useless.
About five months ago, I started playing Ella Langley’s “Choosin’ Texas” for people.
Not casually playing it either.
I was that guy.
This is going to be massive.
Probably said with the same confidence normally reserved for people explaining cryptocurrency at Thanksgiving.
And for once, I was right.
“Choosin’ Texas” didn’t just become a hit. It became one of those songs that escapes whatever little box music is supposed to live in and starts showing up everywhere. It went to No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 and apparently decided it liked the neighborhood enough to stay.
Even Miranda Lambert, who co-wrote the song with Langley, Luke Dick and Joybeth Taylor, didn’t see this coming.
Miranda said when Ella started asking her what all of this meant, she basically had no answer.
Her solution?
“I need to call Taylor Swift right now.”
Because apparently it had gotten *that *big.
Which brings us back to me.
Five months ago.
Told you.
I don’t get many victory laps around here. I’m taking this one.
And this isn’t even my first completely useless musical prophecy.
I was early on Noah Kahan too.
Like a year early.
I remember playing his music for people before Stick Season became unavoidable. Eventually the rest of America discovered him, and suddenly everybody was emotionally damaged in Vermont.
So apparently this is a thing I can do.
Give me three minutes of a song and occasionally I can tell you what millions of people are going to listen to a year from now.
Give me two starting pitchers, four bullpen reports, park factors, recent splits, travel schedules, and thousands of statistics…
Yesterday I gave you two unders that finished with 21 and 11 runs.
So we’re still figuring out where the superpower ends.
Yesterday’s Autopsy
We went 1-2 yesterday.
Because we’d decided to show restraint and play only the three doubles, we also managed to turn 1-2 into an impressive:
0-3 on the actual tickets.
Apparently restraint was a one-day free trial.
HOU/LAA Under 8.5 ❌
Angels 18, Astros 3.
Twenty-one runs. And one of those 21’s where the dealer just keeps pulling cards.
We missed the under by twelve and a half.
Peter Lambert entered with a 3.11 ERA and then allowed nine runs before completing four innings. Or he’s in a different timeline and condensed 9 innings into 3.
This wasn’t a subtle miss.
This was baseball dropping a piano on us.
I still don’t hate the handicap.
Sometimes a guy who has been pitching well suddenly spends an evening throwing batting practice.
Good enough handicap. Freak result. Move along.
SEA/MIL Under 7.5 ❌
Brewers 7, Mariners 4.
This one I don’t want to move along from quite so quickly.
George Kirby allowed six runs in the first inning.
More importantly, there were warning signs.
His previous start hadn’t been good, and Seattle’s pitching had been trending in the wrong direction since the All-Star break.
We saw Kirby’s season numbers.
We saw Gasser.
We saw 7.5.
We saw UNDER.
What we didn’t give enough weight to was what Kirby and the Seattle pitching staff had been doing lately.
That’s on us.
No new Rule.
We have enough Rules.
But I’m writing something in the notebook:
Recent starter trajectory gets a vote.
TEX ML ✅
Rangers 2, Nationals 0.
Naturally, the pick we liked the least was the one that won.
We spent yesterday worrying about Jacob deGrom’s recent triceps fatigue.
He responded with:
6 innings.
1 hit.
0 runs.
10 strikeouts.
He also reached 2,000 career strikeouts.
Apparently Jacob deGrom does not read this column, and I need some triceps fatigue.
Probably smart.
THE GIANT SCOREBOARD
ALL SPORTS: 1,025-1,050-7
And still preserved behind velvet rope in the Museum of Bad Decisions:
TENNIS: 0-1
Who the hell bets on tennis?
TODAY’S GRINDER
We started this morning with five candidates.
Mets. Braves. Twins. Boston. Texas.
Then we did something revolutionary.
We talked ourselves out of bets.
The Mets price looked interesting until we dug into Sean Burke.
Gone. The extra “e” at the end of his name didn’t help.
Minnesota had enough model value to get into the room, but not enough actual baseball argument to stay there.
Gone.
Boston was interesting, but laying around -170 wasn’t.
So instead of asking whether Boston would win, we asked the question we’ve been trying to ask more often:
What exactly are we trying to exploit?
The answer wasn’t Boston.
It was San Francisco’s offense against Sonny Gray.
Different bet.
Same thing happened with Texas.
I didn’t want the full-game moneyline.
But Texas first five -0.5 at +110?
Now we’re talking.
And somewhere in there, Chris Sale showed up as an underdog.
I don’t know exactly how many times in life I’ll be offered Chris Sale plus money.
But I know I want to at least answer the phone.
TODAY’S PICKS
ATLANTA ML
Chris Sale against Jacob Misiorowski.
Milwaukee has the best record in baseball.
Misiorowski has been ridiculous.
Atlanta’s travel schedule looks like it was designed by someone angry at Delta.
I understand all of that.
We’re still getting Chris Sale plus money.
I’ll take it.
TEXAS F5 -0.5 +110
Yesterday’s Texas win has nothing to do with today’s bet.
Different pitcher.
Different matchup.
Different thesis.
We’re looking for Texas to be ahead after five and getting plus money to do it.
Clean wrapper.
SAN FRANCISCO TEAM TOTAL UNDER 2.5 +102
We could have bought 3.5.
It would’ve cost us -159.
We could have bought 4.5.
That was approximately the price of a lightly used Prius Prime.
So we didn’t.
If the thesis is that Sonny Gray and Boston can suppress this Giants offense, let’s actually bet the thesis.
Under 2.5. Plus money.
And apparently we’ve learned absolutely nothing from yesterday because we’re back to:
Singles.
Doubles.
Triple.
All seven.
Yesterday, restraint got one day.
Today we’re Choosin’ Texas.
And Atlanta.
And apparently San Francisco not scoring three runs.
Maybe I should stick to predicting country music.
This isn’t called Pick What I Pick.
It’s called Don’t Pick What I Pick.
Please wager accordingly.
