Some days the riff doesn’t need to wander very far. Some days it feels disrespectful to even try to be funny.
Yesterday was one of those days.
There are people who, when they die, the news that they’re gone feels strange because they seemed permanently installed in the culture.
Dolly Parton was one of those people.
She died yesterday at 80, after a career that somehow included country music, pop music, movies, Dollywood, children’s literacy, approximately four metric tons of rhinestones, several improper Johnny Carson stares, and writing around 3,000 songs.
I’m not going to try to be particularly funny about Dolly today.
Instead, I’ll tell you one story about her I’ve always loved.
In 1974, Elvis Presley wanted to record “I Will Always Love You.”
Imagine being a young songwriter and getting that call.
Elvis wants your song.
Dolly was thrilled. The session was arranged. She was supposed to go watch him record it.
Then Colonel Tom Parker called. Parker told her that Elvis didn’t record songs unless his side received at least half the publishing rights.
Dolly said no.
Not because she didn’t love Elvis. She did. She later said she was heartbroken and cried over the decision. But she’d written the song; it was already a hit, and she believed it was one of the most valuable things she owned.
She wasn’t giving half of it away.
So Elvis never recorded it. Instead he recorded the memorable version of “Old MacDonald Had a Farm” for the film Double Trouble.
Yes, I know that timeline doesn’t work, but anytime we can call Elvis out for that I’m gonna do it.
Eighteen years later, Whitney Houston did record I Will Always Love You. Dolly kept her credit. Vince Gill also recorded it. Dolly kept her credit.
That worked out okay.
What I love about the story isn’t that Dolly Parton outsmarted Colonel Tom Parker.
It’s that at 28 years old, she knew what she was worth when Elvis Presley was standing on the other side of the deal.
That’s considerably harder.
There will be plenty written about Dolly Parton this week, and there should be. The songs alone would have been enough.
But I think I’ll remember that phone call.
The King wanted her song.
Dolly kept her half.
And if the lesson of Dolly’s life is “Know your value,” that works out well too.
Rest well, Dolly.
Yesterday’s Sports Mess
Well.
Our little experiment has concluded.
Not with a peer-reviewed paper.
More like one of those pharmaceutical trials where somebody eventually walks into the room and says:
“We should probably stop giving this to people.”
After going 4-0 with our new Winners Only philosophy, yesterday we went:
0-3.
Milwaukee lost.
Tampa Bay lost.
Portland lost.
So our recent journey is now:
1-8.
Then 4-0.
Then 0-3.
This is less of a betting system and more of an EKG.
⚾ MILWAUKEE ML ❌
Mets 3, Brewers 2 in 10 innings.
This is the one I’m least interested in beating ourselves up over.
Milwaukee led.
The Mets tied it.
Milwaukee tied it again in the ninth.
Then extra innings happened, an error helped the winning run score, and everybody went home except us because we had an autopsy scheduled.
Good enough handicap. Bad result.
I’d make the bet again.
⚾ TAMPA BAY ML ❌
Tigers 4, Rays 1.
This one bothers me more.
Because we actually said the important thing before we made the pick.
This wasn’t Monday’s Tampa matchup.
Monday we had Drew Rasmussen.
Tuesday we had Ian Seymour against Jackson Jobe.
We specifically said:
Jobe makes this less comfortable than yesterday.
Then apparently we looked at that sentence, nodded thoughtfully, and bet Tampa anyway.
Detroit had lost six straight. Tampa had beaten them the night before.
We allowed yesterday’s story to leak into today’s handicap.
That’s on us.
Bad inclusion.
🏀 PORTLAND +8.5 ❌
Dallas 96, Portland 78.
And here is where Winners Only officially died.
We spent two days saying:
Figure out who wins.
Then yesterday we looked at Dallas and Portland and said:
Dallas should probably win.
And bet Portland.
Excellent work, everyone.
There was logic behind it.
Portland had beaten Dallas by one.
Dallas had beaten Portland by four.
We were getting 8.5 points.
That’s a legitimate handicap.
Dallas then won by 18 and set our legitimate handicap on fire.
The problem wasn’t necessarily taking the points.
The problem was creating a rule and then twisting ourselves around it.
So today we’re removing the safety rail.
No more Winners Only.
No more deciding beforehand what kind of bet we’re supposed to find.
The new rule is much simpler:
Find the edge first. Pick the market second. Know your value.
Moneyline.
Run line.
First five.
Spread.
Total.
Whatever.
If that’s where the handicap takes us, that’s where we go.
THE GIANT SCOREBOARD
Yesterday’s 0-3 moves us to:
ALL SPORTS: 1,029-1,059-7
And somehow, through all of this:
TENNIS: 0-1
Untouched.
Unspoiled.
A pristine monument to the question:
Who the hell bets on tennis?
TODAY’S GRINDER
Once we stopped demanding that every pick simply be “this team wins,” the board got considerably more interesting.
And apparently today we’re living almost entirely in the first five innings.
Fine.
My model.
My rules.
⚾ KANSAS CITY F5 ML +100
This was the first one through the grinder and remains my favorite.
Kansas City comes in hot, and Randy Dobnak gives us the early-game matchup we want.
More importantly, we’re getting even money while removing the late innings from the equation.
We don’t need Kansas City’s bullpen.
We don’t need the ninth inning.
We don’t need a closer deciding; today is the perfect afternoon to rediscover a mechanical flaw from Double-A.
Five innings.
Kansas City ahead.
Thank you for your service.
⚾ LOS ANGELES DODGERS F5
Yesterday we threw the Dodgers out because they were making the cross-country trip to Atlanta.
I’ve watched enough Dodgers baseball after travel to know they occasionally step off the airplane, look at the shiny new buildings, eat too much peach cobbler, and… lose.
Today they’ve slept.
Presumably somebody introduced them to the medical wonder that is melatonin.
And today we get Roki Sasaki.
The season numbers aren’t spectacular, but the recent trajectory is considerably better. He’s allowed two earned runs in each of his last three starts.
Atlanta counters with AJ Smith-Shawver, whose limited work this season has been considerably less inspiring. Also, I’m sure he uses the “J” to avoid REALLY awkward initials.
Better Dodgers offense.
Improving Roki.
And we’re concentrating on the portion of the game where that starting-pitching advantage matters most.
Dodgers first five.
Station hadn’t posted the line when I wrote this, so I’ll book the actual number when it appears.
Hopefully before Roki’s glove becomes large enough to affect the betting market.
⚾ PHILADELPHIA F5 -0.5
Same basic idea.
Jesús Luzardo gives Philadelphia the starting-pitching edge we want against Seattle, and the Phillies have the better offense behind him.
So rather than dragging the bullpens into this relationship, we’re asking Philadelphia to do one thing:
Be ahead after five.
Not win by six.
Not survive three innings of bullpen roulette.
Not participate in whatever interpretive dance closers occasionally perform when I’m holding a ticket.
Just give me five good innings.
TODAY’S PICKS
⚾ Kansas City F5 ML +100
⚾ LA Dodgers F5
⚾ Philadelphia F5 -0.5
Three games.
Fifteen innings.
Apparently we’re now handicapping baseball in fun-size portions.
We’ll see tomorrow whether we’ve discovered something useful or merely found a more efficient way to lose before dinner.
Either way, no more safety rail.
Find the edge first. Pick the market second.
Dolly knew what she owned when Colonel Tom Parker came asking for half.
I’m currently trying to figure out whether I own three decent first-five bets.
One of us was considerably better at this.
This isn’t called Pick What I Pick.
It’s called Don’t Pick What I Pick.
Please wager accordingly.
