The Riff
This summer, my sister and I went to SeaWorld in San Diego.
I hadn’t been there in probably 15 years, and apparently things had changed.
For starters, nobody was putting mustaches on seals anymore.
This is probably progress.
The SeaWorld I remembered was basically: Here’s an animal. We taught it something ridiculous. Please applaud.
The new SeaWorld is much more educational. Here’s the animal. Here’s where it came from. Here’s what happened to it. Here’s why it probably shouldn’t be balancing a beach ball on its nose for our amusement. PBS with Churros.
It was also approximately 147 degrees that day, so my sister and I did what any two people deeply interested in marine biology would do.
We looked for air conditioning.
That’s how we ended up at one of their rescue-animal presentations.
First they brought out a capybara.
Everybody loves a capybara. A capybara is basically what happens when a guinea pig gets tired of being overlooked and starts taking HGH.
Then they brought out an alligator.
Apparently, this particular alligator had been rescued from a frat house.
There are sentences where you don’t need any additional information.
The alligator was found at a frat house is one of them.
I don’t know which fraternity. I don’t know what the alligator’s GPA was. I don’t know if it was technically enrolled. I don’t know how an alligator does a keg stand.
But somewhere in this story there was absolutely a guy named Chad.
Then they brought out a bald eagle.
And that’s where things got weird.
We’ll get to the eagle.
Yesterday’s Autopsy
We went 1-2 yesterday.
Which normally would be disappointing, except it may have accidentally produced one of the most important scientific discoveries in Benzo Industries’ history.
Cleveland/San Diego F5 Under 4 ❌
We liked Gavin Williams.
We liked Michael King.
We decided the pitchers were the handicap, so instead of picking a side, we took the First Five Under.
Very responsible.
Very disciplined.
Very fucking wrong.
San Diego and Cleveland had already combined for five runs by the fourth inning.
Nothing structurally wrong with this one. The bet matched the thesis.
The thesis just sucked.
It happens.
Yankees/Toronto F5 Under 4 ✅
This was the opposite.
The Yankees First Five was -155, but Gerrit Cole was the thing we actually trusted.
So instead of paying Yankee Tax, we took the First Five Under 4.
After five innings:
0-0.
I would like all future winning bets to be this boring.
No runners on third with two outs.
No umpire suddenly deciding the strike zone is shaped like Delaware.
No guy named Zebby. No Trumpets.
Just zeroes.
Washington -105 ❌
And now we arrive at Robert Stock.
Stock came into yesterday carrying a 10.13 ERA.
His previous start:
8 runs.
9 hits.
5 walks.
3 innings.
We actually stopped and audited the number because we’re trying to stop blindly fading pitchers based on one horrific statistic.
We investigated. The horrific statistic had receipts. So we took Washington.
Robert Stock then went out and allowed zero earned runs.
Of course he did. And he probably took his girl to Applebee’s afterward because he’s bougie like that.
Which brings us to…
Rule #4: I Suck So Bad I Might Get Better
This rule was born yesterday.
Sometimes a player’s recent performance becomes so catastrophically awful that we begin treating continued catastrophe as inevitable.
But eventually there has to be a point where you look at the numbers and think:
Nobody can possibly continue sucking this badly.
That’s not analytics.
That’s physics.
So from now on, when a historically competent player enters dumpster-visible-from-space territory, we stop before automatically fading him.
We ask:
Has the Suck Rule been activated?
It does NOT mean bad pitcher equals bet on bad pitcher.
Jeez, don’t do that.
It means we stop assuming the worst version of somebody is now their permanent form.
Robert Stock is Patient Zero.
And today…
We may already have Patient One.
Wrobo
Justin Wrobleski has allowed 15 earned runs and nine home runs over his last three starts.
That’s not pitching…. it’s different. That’s batting practice with health insurance.
Our first instinct was Milwaukee. (Bertie was insistent; Benzo hates betting against the Dodgers)
Jacob Misiorowski has been ridiculous. Wrobo has been the opposite of ridiculous.
But something bothered me.
Milwaukee has been struggling.
The Dodgers are still the Dodgers.
And the Dodgers are getting a run and a half.
How often does that happen?
I don’t know how often Haley’s Comet comes around either, but apparently we should check the sky tonight.
Then there’s Wrobo.
Maybe he’s terrible again.
Entirely possible.
Or maybe:
🚨 THE SUCK RULE HAS BEEN ACTIVATED. 🚨
He doesn’t need to become Sandy Koufax tonight.
He just needs to not suck quite as badly.
And if the Dodgers get to the late innings within a run, we’re still alive even if Trumpet Boy comes wandering out of the bullpen. Whis is doubtful as he has “pitched” 2 nights in a row.
Yes.
Edwin Díaz.
The extremely expensive reliever with the cool trumpet entrance who is rapidly training me to associate trumpets with impending disaster.
One more blown save and I’m going to have a panic attack the next time somebody plays mariachi music.
Today’s Picks
We ground the entire board down to four:
CWS/DET F5 Under 4 -120
Melton and Kay. Two starters trending correctly, and four gives us the push.
NYY/TOR F5 Under 4 -125
We’re going back to the same market, but not because yesterday’s won. Today’s pitching matchup gives us another reason to attack the first-five total.
Four again gives us breathing room.
Boston ML -118
This one gets the full nine. We like Boston’s matchup and don’t need to invent a more complicated way to bet it.
Sometimes baseball is allowed to remain baseball.
Dodgers +1.5 -145
Yep.
We spent half the morning trying to find a way to bet Milwaukee.
Then I realized the Dodgers were getting runs.
Wrobo may activate the Suck Rule.
And even Trumpet Boy can’t kill us if he only blows the game by one.
Probably.
Today’s Experiment
Four picks today.
But we’re changing the round robin.
Doubles only.
Six combinations.
That means 2-2 doesn’t vaporize the entire board the way triplets would.
We’re not trying to hit the Powerball.
We’re trying to survive baseball.
And after yesterday, the giant scoreboard now reads:
ALL SPORTS: 1,017-1,039-7
Still underwater.
Still experimenting.
Still arguing with a robot.
Still apparently once bet on tennis.
Who the hell bets on tennis?
Tomorrow we’ll find out whether the Suck Rule deserves a permanent place in the laboratory…
…or whether Wrobo burns the laboratory down.
Either way, there’s still a bald eagle waiting at SeaWorld.
And trust me.
We haven’t even gotten to the fucked-up part yet.
This isn’t called Pick What I Pick.
It’s called Don’t Pick What I Pick.
Please wager accordingly.
