The Riff
I got a flat tire last night.
Which got me thinking about tires.
Mostly because I had plenty of time to think about them while staring at one that had apparently decided it was done being a tire.
Here’s what bothers me.
It’s 2026.
I have a coffee maker that connects to the internet. Think about that for a second. At some point, humanity looked at coffee and decided the problem was that the coffee maker and the internet weren’t communicating enough.
My refrigerator can tell me I’m running low on milk.
My watch knows when I’m sleeping, when I’m exercising and occasionally seems concerned that I’m dying.
I can ask a robot named Bertie whether the first five innings of a White Sox game will have four runs in it.
Admittedly, that technology still needs some work.
But tires?
Basically the same idea we’ve been using forever.
Rubber.
Air.
Road.
Nail.
Well, there goes Sunday Morning.
Sure, tires have improved.
The compounds are better. The tread is better. Run-flats exist. We have sensors now that illuminate a tiny orange horseshoe on the dashboard to let you know that something expensive is about to happen.
But fundamentally, after more than a century, the plan remains:
Let’s fill this rubber thing with air and hope nothing sharp happens.
Meanwhile, my coffee maker is apparently negotiating with the cloud to determine the optimal temperature for Sumatra.
And all this technological progress has created another small problem.
Plastic.
Everything has plastic.
The coffee maker has plastic. The replacement parts have plastic. The packaging has plastic. The thing Amazon ships to replace the plastic thing that broke arrives wrapped in three additional plastic things.
We’re building a civilization where my coffee maker knows my preferred brew temperature, but eventually we’ll all be knee-deep in plastic trying not to step on a nail because apparently nobody has gotten around to Tires 2.0.
But different.
Which brings us to yesterday’s picks, another technology that, despite considerable research and development, doesn’t seem to be substantially improving.
The Autopsy
Yesterday we went 2-2.
Normally, that sentence would be followed by an explanation about process, variance, wrappers, or something else Bertie says when she’s trying to convince me everything is going according to plan.
But yesterday we did something different.
We only played doubles.
Four picks created six combinations.
And because we went 2-2, exactly one of those six doubles survived.
So technically the structure worked.
Barely.
It was the betting equivalent of discovering the flat tire still had one good lug nut.
CWS/Detroit F5 Under 4 ❌
We liked the pitchers.
Again.
Sean Burke had been pitching well. Drew Anderson had been pitching well.
So naturally Chicago and Detroit were tied 3-3 after five innings.
This is becoming one of the easier autopsy categories.
Good wrapper.
Bad handicap.
The bet expressed exactly what we believed. What we believed was wrong.
No new rule. No congressional investigation.
Move along.
Yankees/Toronto F5 Under 4 ✅
Apparently we’ve accidentally become experts on the first five innings of Yankees/Blue Jays games.
This one cashed again.
And importantly, we didn’t bet it because the same market won the day before. We went back through the matchup, looked at the new pitchers, and arrived at the same place for a different reason.
That’s something I actually like about what Bertie and I are doing.
We’re developing rules, but we’re trying not to turn them into superstition.
There’s a difference between:
This worked yesterday. Do it again.
And:
This matchup independently leads us to the same bet.
Same destination.
Different road.
Hopefully without nails.
Boston -118 ✅
Sometimes we make this considerably harder than necessary.
Sonny Gray.
Better situation.
Boston at a reasonable price.
Red Sox win 4-0.
No new rule.
No complicated wrapper.
No guy named Zebby.
No Trumpets.
Just baseball.
I would like to order more of these.
Dodgers +1.5 ❌
And now we must discuss The Suck Rule.
Yesterday Justin Wrobleski became our first official test subject.
He had allowed 15 earned runs and nine home runs over his previous three starts.
Our newly established theory was not that Wrobo would suddenly become Sandy Koufax.
It was simply:
Can someone suck so badly that eventually he has to get better?
Turns out…
Kind of.
Wrobo was better.
He went six innings and gave up four runs.
That’s not exactly something we’re engraving on a plaque, but compared with what he’d been doing lately, it qualified as improvement. Not so much of an improvement that he’s gonna get one of those weird life-sized Bobbleheads at Dodgers Stadium…. BUT, an improvement.
Unfortunately, the Dodgers scored one.
Milwaukee won 4-1.
So the Suck Rule survived, but we’re adding a clarification.
The Suck Rule does NOT mean bet on the sucky guy.
It means don’t automatically fade him because you assume the worst stretch of his career will continue forever.
That’s an important distinction.
One I wish we’d made approximately 24 hours earlier.
The laboratory remains open.
Today’s Grinder
Because of the aforementioned tire situation, today’s research department was operating under emergency conditions.
No wandering through 15 games.
No asking me to read betting lines into my phone while somebody removes a screw from an off-brand tire that I swear came with the car.
We used consensus numbers, grounded the board quickly, and came out with three.
CWS/Detroit F5 Under 4
Yes.
Again.
I can already hear you.
But different.
Different pitchers. Different matchup. Same market.
If today’s underlying numbers hadn’t pointed us here, yesterday’s loss would actually be a reason not to bet it.
But they did.
So we’re going back.
If this turns into another 3-3 game after five, tomorrow there may be a Rule #5 titled:
Stop Betting White Sox/Tigers First Five Unders.
Atlanta ML
Atlanta is home, we’re getting a reasonable consensus price, and Bryce Elder arrives with a little bit of Suck Rule perfume on him.
Not enough that we’re betting Atlanta because he struggled.
Just enough that we’re not automatically assuming his worst recent outing represents who he is now.
There’s also something inherently appealing about a team trying to avoid getting swept at home.
That’s not analytics.
That’s me being a sports fan.
Bertie can put it in the model wherever she wants. My model – my rules.
Washington ML
We’re going back to Washington.
This feels dangerous just typing it.
But we’re also getting a substantially better price today, and Christian Scott’s recent work gives us something legitimate to attack.
Washington’s offense has also been producing enough that we’re not simply betting against the Mets.
Betting against the Mets occasionally has recreational value. But most of the time it’s like watching the Mr. Met and Mrs. Met mascot navigate giant head placement during sex.
Today’s Picks
CWS/DET F5 Under 4
Atlanta ML
Washington ML
Three survived.
That’s enough.
We’re not adding something because a round robin looks prettier with four.
And the giant scoreboard now reads:
ALL SPORTS: 1,019-1,041-7
Still underwater.
Still grinding.
Still apparently 0-1 in tennis.
Who the hell bets on tennis?
Tomorrow
Today I need three baseball bets to win and somebody to explain why my coffee maker can receive a firmware update while my tire can still be defeated by something available in the hardware aisle for twelve cents.
We’ve put computers in our pockets.
We’ve sent spacecraft beyond the solar system.
We’ve created artificial intelligence sophisticated enough to argue with me about the Washington Nationals before breakfast.
Yet somewhere right now an engineer is apparently looking at a tire and saying:
Nope. Nailed it.
Poor choice of words.
Tomorrow we’ll find out whether today’s picks held air.
And eventually, we still have to get back to that bald eagle at SeaWorld.
Bad Picks. Better Stories.
This isn’t called Pick What I Pick.
It’s called Don’t Pick What I Pick.
Please wager accordingly.
